I have been commenting on the potential affects of China's own stimulus plan and I want to bring your attention to some evidence of its efficacy v.s. the efforts of the US Government's own efforts.
One thing is clear: The Chinese Government is doing a vastly better job at getting banks to lend to businesses than the US counterpart:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8eFPply2bDE&refer=home
Our government has allocated trillions of dollars to the problem yet by many measurable standards, lending in the US is still relatively choked off, with many banks reporting a ratcheting up of lending standards and a decrease in loans lent.
The Chinese banks, on the other hand, are increasing lending. This is another small step in the transition that is taking place which will see Chinese companies continue to grow, even if at a decelerated pace, through the turbulence of the global economy. China has ample reserves to fund this shift and stimulate growth via continued bank lending domestically.
The next step is for Chinese domestic consumption to start taking the mantle from the US consumer. That may take time, given the yuan is held undervalued. But the dollar could come under serious pressure as some investors are citing the potential that in the not-so-distant future, there could be an auction by the Treasury of T-bills or Treasuries (IOU's) in which demand drops or even dissipates. That would mark an ominous day for the US. The day the world stops buying our debt, there would be serious repercussions.
I recommend you follow the price of gold. It is a general barometer for the health of the US dollar. It has not weakened during the financial crisis and has recently traded not far below highs made last year. I trade the ticker symbol GLD which tracks the price of gold but owning it physically is probably better.
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
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